The AI capex cycle: are we in 1997 or 1999?

$NVDAπŸ‚ Bullish

Serious question for the room. Hyperscaler capex is annualizing at levels nobody modeled two years ago. Bulls say we're in 1997 β€” the buildout has years to run. Bears say 1999 β€” ROI questions hit next year and the music stops. My take: the difference is that today's spenders fund it from free cash flow, not debt and equity raises. That alone puts us closer to '97. But watch depreciation schedules β€” that's where the bodies get buried.

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3 replies

QU@quant_katΒ· 2mo ago
0

FCF-funded capex historically correlates with longer cycles β€” the '97 comp holds up statistically.

BE@bearwhaleΒ· 2mo ago
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1999. Ask me how I know. (I was there.)

CH@chip_wizardΒ· 2mo ago
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The depreciation point is underrated. H100s on 5-year schedules while getting replaced in 2 is a reckoning waiting to happen.

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