Analyst upgrade or downgrade
📈 MarketA sell-side analyst changes their rating or price target materially.
Typical size
1-5%
Timeframe
Same day, often fading within a week
Evidence
0 logged events
Why it moves the price
Moves flows from clients who follow the research, and can shift consensus estimates that other investors anchor to.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Mostly noise, with exceptions: an upgrade from a genuinely influential analyst at a major bank, a double-upgrade (sell to buy), or a call that breaks from unanimous consensus. Most rating changes lag the price rather than lead it.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
Not measured yet
After 1 week
Not measured yet
After 1 month
Not measured yet
No measured verdict yet — 0 events logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (0)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.