What actually moves a stock?
A library of the catalysts that reprice companies — a CEO walking out, guidance cut, a buyback, a lawsuit. Each one explains the mechanism, then shows what really happened to prices when the community logged real cases of it.
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factors catalogued
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real events measured
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with enough evidence
1. Log what happened
Record a real event — the stock, the date, and which factor it was. Anyone can contribute.
2. We measure the reaction
Real closing prices decide it: the move from the prior close to +1 day, +1 week and +1 month.
3. The pattern emerges
Across enough events, each factor gets an average move, a hit rate, and a verdict you can trade on.
What the data says so far
Factors ranked by the size of their measured next-day move. Only factors with at least 3 logged events appear here.
| Factor | Avg next day | Moved up | vs S&P | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🧪 Clinical trial results | +46.10% | 100% | +45.20% | 3 |
| ❌ Earnings miss | -29.91% | 0% | -29.30% | 3 |
| ⬇️ Guidance cut | -22.78% | 0% | -22.32% | 5 |
| ⬆️ Guidance raised | +21.73% | 100% | +20.76% | 3 |
| 🧮 Index inclusion or removal | +16.95% | 100% | +16.94% | 3 |
| 💊 FDA approval or rejection | +13.49% | 67% | +13.35% | 3 |
| 👔 CEO change | +11.49% | 80% | +11.12% | 5 |
| 🔄 Buyback announcement | +11.32% | 100% | +9.80% | 3 |
| 🔪 Stock split | +8.68% | 100% | +8.30% | 5 |
| 🛃 Export controls or sanctions | -5.11% | 0% | -5.32% | 3 |
| 🔓 Data breach or cyberattack | -4.84% | 0% | -4.83% | 3 |
| ✅ Earnings beat | +3.31% | 67% | +2.34% | 3 |
| 📉 Layoffs or restructuring | +3.06% | 60% | +3.37% | 5 |
| 🏦 Fed rate decision | -1.93% | 0% | 0.00% | 3 |
👔 Leadership
Who runs the company, and who owns a say in it.
CEO change
The chief executive departs, retires, is ousted, or a successor is named.
CFO resignation
The finance chief departs, especially suddenly or without a successor.
Founder or former CEO returns
A founder or a previously successful chief executive comes back to run the company.
Activist investor takes a stake
An activist fund discloses a position and pushes for changes — board seats, spin-offs, buybacks, or a sale.
Cluster of insider buying
Multiple executives or directors buy shares with their own money in a short window.
Board shakeup or proxy fight
Directors are replaced, a proxy contest is launched, or the board is restructured under pressure.
Executive misconduct
A senior leader resigns or is removed over personal conduct, ethics, or policy violations.
Cluster of insider selling
Several executives or directors sell large amounts of stock in a short window.
Orderly succession announced
A CEO transition is announced well in advance with a named internal successor.
📊 Earnings
The quarterly scoreboard and what management says comes next.
Earnings beat
Reported revenue and/or EPS come in above the consensus analyst estimate.
Earnings miss
Revenue or EPS lands below consensus.
Guidance raised
Management lifts its forecast for coming quarters or the full year.
Guidance cut
Management lowers its outlook.
Margin expansion or compression
Gross or operating margin moves materially versus prior quarters.
Growth deceleration
Revenue is still growing but the growth rate is slowing sequentially.
Profit warning between quarters
Management pre-announces that results will fall short, outside the normal reporting calendar.
Key operating metric turns
The metric the market actually values moves sharply — subscribers, same-store sales, bookings, backlog, daily users.
Free cash flow inflection
The company turns free-cash-flow positive, or slips back into cash burn.
Capital spending plans jump
Management commits to sharply higher capital expenditure.
💰 Capital
What the company does with its cash — and who it asks for more.
Buyback announcement
The board authorises repurchasing a meaningful amount of stock.
Dividend initiation or raise
The company starts paying a dividend or increases it.
Dividend cut or suspension
The company reduces or eliminates its dividend.
Secondary offering / dilution
The company issues new shares, or a large holder sells a block into the market.
Stock split
Shares are divided, lowering the per-share price.
Credit rating change
A rating agency upgrades or downgrades the company's debt.
Debt raise or refinancing
The company issues bonds or refinances existing borrowings.
Convertible note offering
The company raises money through debt that can convert into equity later.
Special one-time dividend
A large non-recurring cash payment is declared outside the regular dividend.
Bankruptcy or restructuring filing
The company files for court protection from creditors.
Reverse stock split
Shares are consolidated, raising the per-share price without changing value.
🤝 M&A
Deals that redraw the company's boundaries.
Company is acquired
The company agrees to be bought, or a bid becomes public.
Company makes an acquisition
The company announces it is buying another business.
Spin-off or divestiture
A division is separated into an independent company or sold off.
Deal blocked or terminated
A pending acquisition is blocked by regulators, voted down, or abandoned.
Competing bid emerges
A second suitor bids for a company already under agreement.
Take-private or LBO approach
Private equity or a founder group proposes taking the company private.
Division or asset sale
The company sells a business unit, property, or major asset for cash.
⚖️ Legal
Courts, regulators and agencies with power over the business.
Investigation or major lawsuit
A regulator opens an investigation or a significant legal claim is filed.
Antitrust ruling or regulatory action
A court or competition authority rules against the company, or moves to block a practice or deal.
FDA approval or rejection
A regulator approves, rejects, or delays a drug or medical device.
Government contract award
The company wins (or loses) a large public-sector contract.
Clinical trial results
A drug or therapy reports data from a clinical study, usually Phase 2 or Phase 3.
Patent or IP ruling
A court or patent office decides an intellectual-property dispute, or a key patent expires.
Export controls or sanctions
Governments restrict what the company can sell, to whom, or where it can operate.
Tariffs or trade policy shift
New duties are imposed on imports or exports affecting the supply chain or end markets.
Litigation settled
A long-running legal claim is resolved with an agreed payment.
🚨 Trust
Accounting integrity, fraud allegations and financial distress — the fastest way to lose a multiple.
Short seller report
An activist short seller publishes research alleging fraud, accounting manipulation, or misrepresentation.
Accounting restatement
The company announces that previously reported financials were wrong and must be revised.
Auditor resigns
The external audit firm quits, often citing unwillingness to rely on management's representations.
Delayed regulatory filing
The company fails to file its annual or quarterly report on time.
SEC enforcement action
A securities regulator charges the company or its executives.
Going concern warning
Auditors or management flag substantial doubt about the company's ability to keep operating.
Delisting notice
The exchange warns the company it no longer meets listing requirements.
🔧 Product
What the company sells and whether it works.
Major product launch
A flagship product or platform is unveiled or ships.
Product recall or safety failure
A product is recalled, fails publicly, or causes a safety incident.
Data breach or cyberattack
The company suffers a significant security breach or operational outage.
Layoffs or restructuring
The company announces significant job cuts or a restructuring.
Supply chain disruption
Production or distribution is interrupted — shortages, factory halts, logistics failures.
Competitive threat emerges
A rival launches a superior product, undercuts on price, or a new entrant attacks the core market.
Major customer won or lost
A large customer signs on, or an existing one leaves for a competitor.
Strategic partnership or major contract
An alliance, distribution deal, or supply agreement with a significant partner is announced.
Price increase or discounting
The company raises prices, or starts cutting them to defend volume.
Strike or labour action
Workers strike, or a costly new labour agreement is signed.
Capacity expansion
New plants, fabs, stores or data centres are announced.
Disaster or facility disruption
Fire, storm, earthquake or accident takes a key facility offline.
📈 Market
Flows, positioning and analyst opinion — price moves with no news.
Analyst upgrade or downgrade
A sell-side analyst changes their rating or price target materially.
Index inclusion or removal
The stock is added to or dropped from a major index such as the S&P 500.
Short squeeze
A heavily shorted stock rises sharply, forcing short sellers to buy back and pushing it higher still.
Lock-up expiry
Post-IPO restrictions end, letting insiders and early investors sell.
IPO or direct listing debut
Shares begin trading publicly for the first time.
Options-driven squeeze
Heavy call-option buying forces market makers to buy stock to hedge, amplifying the move.
Thematic fund flows
A stock is swept up in flows into or out of a popular thematic ETF or narrative basket.
🌍 Macro
Forces that move every stock at once.
Fed rate decision
The Federal Reserve changes interest rates or signals its future path.
Inflation or jobs data
A scheduled macro release — CPI, PCE, or the monthly employment report.
Sector rotation
Capital moves between sectors — growth to value, tech to energy, large to small.
Commodity or energy price shock
A sharp move in oil, gas, or a key industrial input price.
Bond yield spike
Long-term government bond yields rise sharply.
Major currency move
A sharp move in the dollar or another key trading currency.
Geopolitical conflict
War, escalation, or a major diplomatic rupture.
Election or policy shift
An election result or major policy change redistributes advantage between industries.
Credit or banking stress
A bank fails, credit spreads widen sharply, or funding markets seize.
China demand or stimulus
Chinese economic policy, stimulus, or demand data shifts materially.
Recession signal
Data or markets point to contraction — an inverted yield curve, rising unemployment, contracting PMIs.
Historical price reactions are not guarantees of future behaviour. Not financial advice.