Export controls or sanctions
⚖️ LegalGovernments restrict what the company can sell, to whom, or where it can operate.
Typical size
3-15%
Timeframe
Immediate; recurring as rules tighten
Evidence
3 logged events
Why it moves the price
Removes a market by decree. Unlike losing to a competitor there is no strategy that wins the revenue back — the addressable market simply shrinks.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Size the restricted region as a share of revenue, then ask whether demand elsewhere absorbs the supply. In tight markets the restricted units get sold elsewhere and the earnings hit is far smaller than the revenue-exposure headline implies.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
-5.11%
- Median
- -4.68%
- Moved up
- 0% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- -5.32%
After 1 week
-5.52%
- Median
- -6.77%
- Moved up
- 0% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- -5.20%
After 1 month
-12.40%
- Median
- -19.58%
- Moved up
- 33% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- -6.96%
The logged evidence agrees with the textbook expectation. Based on 3 measured events.
The evidence (3)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2023 | NVDA | Export rules widened to capture the China-specific chips Second round — the muted reaction shows the market had learned demand gets reallocated. | -4.68% | -6.77% | +7.73% | -4.67% |
| Sep 1, 2022 | NVDA | US licence requirement imposed on advanced AI chip sales to China | -7.67% | -7.31% | -19.58% | -7.98% |
| Sep 1, 2022 | AMD | Caught by the same China export licence requirement | -2.99% | -2.46% | -25.34% | -3.31% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.