Investigation or major lawsuit
⚖️ LegalA regulator opens an investigation or a significant legal claim is filed.
Typical size
2-10%
Timeframe
Immediate; overhang persists for years
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
Markets price an expected value of fines and remedies, plus a risk premium for uncertainty and the management distraction that follows.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Fines are usually survivable; forced changes to the business model are not. The question is never 'how big is the penalty' but 'does this stop them doing the profitable thing'. Markets often over-react on day one and recover.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
-4.09%
- Median
- -4.09%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -4.42%
After 1 week
-3.00%
- Median
- -3.00%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -3.52%
After 1 month
-7.65%
- Median
- -7.65%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -2.79%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | AAPL | US Department of Justice filed an antitrust suit over smartphone markets | -4.09% | -3.00% | -7.65% | -4.42% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.