Clinical trial results
⚖️ LegalA drug or therapy reports data from a clinical study, usually Phase 2 or Phase 3.
Typical size
30-150% for single-asset biotech
Timeframe
Instantaneous and permanent
Evidence
3 logged events
Why it moves the price
Trial data is the single input that decides whether an asset has any value. Success moves it toward approval and revenue; failure typically writes the programme to zero.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Even more binary than the approval that follows. Read the endpoint actually hit, not the press-release adjectives — statistically significant but clinically marginal results often sell off, and a safety signal can kill a drug that met its efficacy endpoint.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+46.10%
- Median
- +9.58%
- Moved up
- 100% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +45.20%
After 1 week
+50.89%
- Median
- +9.20%
- Moved up
- 100% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +49.97%
After 1 month
+66.00%
- Median
- +64.69%
- Moved up
- 100% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +62.18%
The logged evidence is mixed, which is common for context-dependent factors. Based on 3 measured events.
The evidence (3)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | VKTX | Phase 2 obesity data far exceeded expectations Single-asset biotech: the whole company revalued on one readout. | +121.02% | +137.37% | +110.06% | +120.84% |
| Nov 16, 2020 | MRNA | Covid vaccine interim efficacy reported at roughly 94% | +9.58% | +9.20% | +64.69% | +8.33% |
| Nov 9, 2020 | PFE | Covid vaccine interim efficacy reported above 90% Large-cap comparison: the same news moves a diversified pharma far less. | +7.69% | +6.10% | +23.24% | +6.44% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.