Tariffs or trade policy shift
⚖️ LegalNew duties are imposed on imports or exports affecting the supply chain or end markets.
Typical size
2-12%; whole sectors move together
Timeframe
Immediate; persists until policy changes
Evidence
2 logged events
Why it moves the price
Raises input costs or the price the end customer pays, compressing margins or volumes. Retaliation can close export markets outright.
What separates a good call from a naive one
The first-order hit lands on companies that manufacture abroad and sell at home. Look for pricing power — a company that can pass duties through keeps its margin while weaker competitors cannot, which can turn a tariff into a share-gain event.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
-11.84%
- Median
- -11.84%
- Moved up
- 0% of 2
- vs S&P 500
- -6.91%
After 1 week
-9.93%
- Median
- -9.93%
- Moved up
- 0% of 2
- vs S&P 500
- -7.12%
After 1 month
-9.04%
- Median
- -9.04%
- Moved up
- 0% of 2
- vs S&P 500
- -9.44%
No measured verdict yet — 2 events logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (2)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.