Buyback announcement
💰 CapitalThe board authorises repurchasing a meaningful amount of stock.
Typical size
1-6%
Timeframe
Day-one pop; supportive over quarters
Evidence
3 logged events
Why it moves the price
Buybacks reduce share count (raising EPS), add a persistent buyer to the tape, and signal management believes the stock is undervalued and cash flow is durable.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Authorisation is not execution — some programmes are never fully used. Size it as a percentage of market cap: below ~2% it is noise. Buybacks funded by debt at high prices destroy value even though they pop the stock.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+11.32%
- Median
- +5.98%
- Moved up
- 100% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +9.80%
After 1 week
+10.42%
- Median
- +6.67%
- Moved up
- 100% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +8.86%
After 1 month
+13.81%
- Median
- +12.14%
- Moved up
- 100% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +11.04%
The logged evidence agrees with the textbook expectation. Based on 3 measured events.
The evidence (3)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2024 | AAPL | Record $110B buyback authorised with Q2 results Announced after the close on May 2. | +5.98% | +6.67% | +12.14% | +4.74% |
| May 5, 2023 | AAPL | $90B buyback authorised with Q2 results Announced after the close on May 4. | +4.69% | +4.80% | +8.32% | +2.84% |
| Feb 2, 2023 | META | $40B buyback announced alongside the 'year of efficiency' cost plan Announced after the close on Feb 1. | +23.28% | +19.79% | +20.98% | +21.83% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.