Litigation settled
⚖️ LegalA long-running legal claim is resolved with an agreed payment.
Typical size
2-10%
Timeframe
Immediate
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
Replaces an unbounded, unknowable liability with a fixed number, removing the risk premium investors applied while the range of outcomes was open.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Stocks usually rise on settlements even when the cheque is large, because certainty is worth more than the cash. The exceptions are settlements above the reserve already taken, or ones that imply liability in other pending cases.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+1.39%
- Median
- +1.39%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -0.05%
After 1 week
+2.62%
- Median
- +2.62%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +1.16%
After 1 month
-10.24%
- Median
- -10.24%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -6.46%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2023 | MMM | Multi-billion settlement reached in the combat earplug litigation Certainty was worth more than the cash — the stock rose on agreeing to pay. | +1.39% | +2.62% | -10.24% | -0.05% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.