Deal blocked or terminated
🤝 M&AA pending acquisition is blocked by regulators, voted down, or abandoned.
Typical size
Target -20-50%, acquirer +1-8%
Timeframe
Immediate
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
The target loses its deal premium and returns to standalone fundamentals; the acquirer keeps its cash and avoids integration risk.
What separates a good call from a naive one
The two sides move in opposite directions, which is what makes this tradeable. Break fees soften the target's fall. Watch for a standalone plan announced the same day to steady the shares.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+4.91%
- Median
- +4.91%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +5.28%
After 1 week
+2.25%
- Median
- +2.25%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +0.83%
After 1 month
+50.92%
- Median
- +50.92%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +47.27%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | JBLU | Judge blocked the Spirit Airlines merger on antitrust grounds The acquirer's side of a blocked deal — freed from the purchase price and the integration risk. | +4.91% | +2.25% | +50.92% | +5.28% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.