Election or policy shift
🌍 MacroAn election result or major policy change redistributes advantage between industries.
Typical size
2-20% by sector
Timeframe
Immediate; policy itself takes years
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
Changes expected tax rates, regulation and subsidies, repricing whole sectors instantly even though no company fundamental has changed yet.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Day-one moves trade the narrative, not the legislation, and much of it reverses once it is clear what can actually pass. Durable effects show up where policy directly sets the economics — energy subsidies, healthcare reimbursement.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+14.75%
- Median
- +14.75%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +12.26%
After 1 week
+30.64%
- Median
- +30.64%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +27.14%
After 1 month
+46.95%
- Median
- +46.95%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +41.75%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | TSLA | US election result read as favourable to the company | +14.75% | +30.64% | +46.95% | +12.26% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.