Sector rotation
🌍 MacroCapital moves between sectors — growth to value, tech to energy, large to small.
Typical size
2-10% relative performance over weeks
Timeframe
Weeks to months
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
Portfolio-level allocation shifts move entire groups of stocks together regardless of company-specific news, driven by rate expectations and the economic cycle.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Rotation explains a large share of single-stock moves that look inexplicable on the news. Before attributing a drop to company factors, check whether the whole sector moved — if it did, there may be no company story at all.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
-16.97%
- Median
- -16.97%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -15.55%
After 1 week
-15.81%
- Median
- -15.81%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -14.80%
After 1 month
-11.21%
- Median
- -11.21%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -8.95%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2025 | NVDA | DeepSeek's low-cost model triggers a rotation out of AI infrastructure No company-specific news — the whole AI hardware complex sold off together. | -16.97% | -15.81% | -11.21% | -15.55% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.