Inflation or jobs data
🌍 MacroA scheduled macro release — CPI, PCE, or the monthly employment report.
Typical size
0.5-2.5% on the index
Timeframe
Same day, sometimes reversing within days
Evidence
3 logged events
Why it moves the price
These readings shift expectations for Fed policy, which flows through to discount rates and the entire market's multiple.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Only the surprise versus consensus matters, not the level. The market's interpretation can invert quickly — strong jobs data is good for earnings but bad for rate cuts, and which effect dominates changes with the regime.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+1.03%
- Median
- +1.94%
- Moved up
- 67% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- 0.00%
After 1 week
+1.15%
- Median
- +3.20%
- Moved up
- 67% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- 0.00%
After 1 month
-0.32%
- Median
- +5.12%
- Moved up
- 67% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- 0.00%
The logged evidence is mixed, which is common for context-dependent factors. Based on 3 measured events.
The evidence (3)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2023 | SPY | Softer inflation reading revived rate-cut expectations | +1.94% | +3.20% | +6.89% | 0.00% |
| Nov 10, 2022 | SPY | CPI came in cooler than expected Same release, opposite surprise — the mirror image of the September reaction. | +5.50% | +5.70% | +5.12% | 0.00% |
| Sep 13, 2022 | SPY | CPI came in hotter than expected | -4.35% | -5.46% | -12.95% | 0.00% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.