Commodity or energy price shock
🌍 MacroA sharp move in oil, gas, or a key industrial input price.
Typical size
2-15% for directly exposed names
Timeframe
Immediate for producers; a quarter or two for users
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
Directly changes input costs for users and revenue for producers, and feeds through to inflation expectations and consumer spending power.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Identify which side of the trade the company sits on, and whether it can pass costs through. Airlines and chemicals suffer from oil spikes; producers and services benefit. Hedging programmes can delay the impact by quarters.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+0.76%
- Median
- +0.76%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +1.52%
After 1 week
-6.01%
- Median
- -6.01%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -5.44%
After 1 month
-5.04%
- Median
- -5.04%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -12.57%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2022 | XOM | Crude spiked toward multi-year highs on supply fears | +0.76% | -6.01% | -5.04% | +1.52% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.