Earnings miss
📊 EarningsRevenue or EPS lands below consensus.
Typical size
3-15%
Timeframe
Immediate, with negative drift for weeks
Evidence
3 logged events
Why it moves the price
A miss forces downward revisions to forward estimates and often to the multiple investors will pay, because it undermines confidence in management's forecasting.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Misses are punished harder than beats are rewarded — this asymmetry is one of the most reliable patterns in equities. Check whether the cause is one-off (a shipment slipping a quarter) or structural (demand softening); only the second justifies a durable de-rating.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
-29.91%
- Median
- -26.06%
- Moved up
- 0% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- -29.30%
After 1 week
-33.97%
- Median
- -31.59%
- Moved up
- 0% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- -33.67%
After 1 month
-31.93%
- Median
- -29.30%
- Moved up
- 0% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- -33.88%
The logged evidence agrees with the textbook expectation. Based on 3 measured events.
The evidence (3)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2024 | INTC | Weak results and outlook alongside a large restructuring Reported after the close on Aug 1. | -26.06% | -29.47% | -24.13% | -24.20% |
| Jul 22, 2022 | SNAP | Q2 revenue badly missed as ad spending dried up Reported after the close on Jul 21. | -39.08% | -40.86% | -29.30% | -38.15% |
| Feb 2, 2022 | PYPL | Weak results and a sharply lower user growth outlook Reported after the close on Feb 1. | -24.59% | -31.59% | -42.35% | -25.56% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.