Guidance raised
📊 EarningsManagement lifts its forecast for coming quarters or the full year.
Typical size
4-15%
Timeframe
Immediate, often with continued drift
Evidence
3 logged events
Why it moves the price
Guidance is about the future, and valuation is entirely about the future. Raised guidance moves every forward estimate at once.
What separates a good call from a naive one
This is typically the single most powerful scheduled catalyst — stronger than the reported quarter itself. Check the quality: raising on genuine demand is very different from raising because of a buyback lowering the share count or a one-time tax benefit.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+21.73%
- Median
- +24.37%
- Moved up
- 100% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +20.76%
After 1 week
+22.06%
- Median
- +20.85%
- Moved up
- 100% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +21.59%
After 1 month
+31.59%
- Median
- +33.05%
- Moved up
- 100% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +28.90%
The logged evidence agrees with the textbook expectation. Based on 3 measured events.
The evidence (3)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2024 | AVGO | Management laid out a far larger AI revenue opportunity than expected Reported after the close on Dec 12. | +24.43% | +20.85% | +26.20% | +24.45% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | NVDA | Q4 FY24 results beat big with a large guidance raise Reported after the close on Feb 21. | +16.40% | +15.10% | +35.52% | +14.33% |
| May 25, 2023 | NVDA | Guidance raised roughly 50% above consensus on AI demand Reported after the close on May 24; the move that started the AI trade. | +24.37% | +30.23% | +33.05% | +23.50% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.