Earnings beat
📊 EarningsReported revenue and/or EPS come in above the consensus analyst estimate.
Typical size
1-6%, but frequently muted
Timeframe
Same-day gap, with drift over following weeks
Evidence
3 logged events
Why it moves the price
Higher realised earnings lift the base for future cash-flow estimates, and analysts revise forward numbers upward.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Beats are the norm — companies guide so they can beat, so a small beat is already in the price. What actually moves the stock is the *size* of the beat versus the whisper number, and the guidance that accompanies it. A beat paired with weak guidance usually trades down.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+3.31%
- Median
- +7.87%
- Moved up
- 67% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +2.34%
After 1 week
+2.51%
- Median
- +6.63%
- Moved up
- 67% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +1.02%
After 1 month
+6.11%
- Median
- +10.19%
- Moved up
- 67% of 3
- vs S&P 500
- +2.15%
The logged evidence agrees with the textbook expectation. Based on 3 measured events.
The evidence (3)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2024 | NVDA | Q2 results beat but the stock sold off anyway The instructive counter-example: a beat that was already more than priced in. | -6.38% | -14.65% | -3.35% | -6.39% |
| Feb 2, 2024 | AMZN | Q4 revenue and operating income beat across all segments Reported after the close on Feb 1. | +7.87% | +6.63% | +11.49% | +6.81% |
| Jan 20, 2023 | NFLX | Q4 subscriber additions beat expectations Reported after the close on Jan 19. | +8.46% | +15.55% | +10.19% | +6.60% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.