Credit or banking stress
🌍 MacroA bank fails, credit spreads widen sharply, or funding markets seize.
Typical size
3-25% for financials; 1-5% broad market
Timeframe
Days of panic; resolution depends on the policy response
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
Threatens the availability of financing across the economy. Contagion fear hits anything perceived to depend on short-term funding, regardless of its own balance sheet.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Indiscriminate selling of a whole sector creates the largest gap between fundamentals and price of any factor here. The decisive variable is the speed of the official response, not the size of the failing institution.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
-11.57%
- Median
- -11.57%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -11.42%
After 1 week
-3.90%
- Median
- -3.90%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -4.96%
After 1 month
-11.91%
- Median
- -11.91%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -18.08%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2023 | SCHW | Regional bank failures triggered contagion selling across financials | -11.57% | -3.90% | -11.91% | -11.42% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.