Geopolitical conflict
🌍 MacroWar, escalation, or a major diplomatic rupture.
Typical size
1-5% on the index; far more by sector
Timeframe
Sharp initial move, frequently reversed within weeks
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
Raises the equity risk premium broadly while directly changing prospects for energy, defence, shipping and companies with regional exposure.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Broad market reactions to geopolitical shocks have historically been short-lived and mean-reverting, while sector effects — defence up, airlines down on fuel — last much longer. Separate the two before trading it.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+1.75%
- Median
- +1.75%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +0.25%
After 1 week
+15.71%
- Median
- +15.71%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +11.93%
After 1 month
+15.64%
- Median
- +15.64%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +8.88%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2022 | LMT | Invasion of Ukraine lifted defence spending expectations | +1.75% | +15.71% | +15.64% | +0.25% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.