China demand or stimulus
🌍 MacroChinese economic policy, stimulus, or demand data shifts materially.
Typical size
2-15% for exposed names
Timeframe
Immediate; follows through over quarters
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
China is the marginal buyer for many commodities and a major end market for luxury, autos, semiconductors and industrials, so its demand sets prices at the margin worldwide.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Stimulus announcements have repeatedly produced sharp rallies that faded when implementation disappointed. Separate announced intent from measurable activity data before extrapolating.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
+7.88%
- Median
- +7.88%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +7.59%
After 1 week
+17.79%
- Median
- +17.79%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +17.08%
After 1 month
+11.51%
- Median
- +11.51%
- Moved up
- 100% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- +9.11%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2024 | BABA | Beijing announced a broad stimulus package | +7.88% | +17.79% | +11.51% | +7.59% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.