Competitive threat emerges
🔧 ProductA rival launches a superior product, undercuts on price, or a new entrant attacks the core market.
Typical size
3-20%
Timeframe
Immediate; the real test takes several quarters
Evidence
1 logged event
Why it moves the price
Threatens both future volumes and pricing power. Markets reprice the durability of the moat, which hits the multiple harder than it hits current earnings.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Initial reactions frequently overshoot, because a threat is easier to imagine than to execute. Track actual share data over following quarters rather than the announcement — many feared entrants never convert.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
-7.68%
- Median
- -7.68%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -6.59%
After 1 week
-12.04%
- Median
- -12.04%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -11.43%
After 1 month
-14.23%
- Median
- -14.23%
- Moved up
- 0% of 1
- vs S&P 500
- -8.54%
No measured verdict yet — 1 event logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (1)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2023 | GOOGL | Rival AI search launch, plus an error in the company's own demo | -7.68% | -12.04% | -14.23% | -6.59% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.