Product recall or safety failure
🔧 ProductA product is recalled, fails publicly, or causes a safety incident.
Typical size
3-20%
Timeframe
Immediate; brand damage lasts quarters to years
Evidence
2 logged events
Why it moves the price
Direct costs (repair, replacement, litigation) plus indirect damage to brand, plus regulatory scrutiny that can slow future approvals or production.
What separates a good call from a naive one
Severity scales with whether people were harmed and whether it looks systemic. A single defective batch is recoverable; a design flaw that halts production and invites regulators is a different order of problem.
Measured impact
Every logged event is measured against real closing prices: the move from the close before the event, compared with the S&P 500 over the same window.
Next day
-6.68%
- Median
- -6.68%
- Moved up
- 0% of 2
- vs S&P 500
- -8.12%
After 1 week
-11.44%
- Median
- -11.44%
- Moved up
- 0% of 2
- vs S&P 500
- -13.62%
After 1 month
-13.80%
- Median
- -13.80%
- Moved up
- 0% of 2
- vs S&P 500
- -19.19%
No measured verdict yet — 2 events logged. Three or more are needed before the data says anything useful.
The evidence (2)
Every row is a real event, measured against actual closing prices.
| Date | Stock | What happened | Next day | 1 week | 1 month | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2024 | BA | 737 MAX 9 door plug blew out in flight, grounding the fleet Incident occurred Friday Jan 5; this is the first session after. | -8.03% | -12.57% | -16.23% | -9.46% |
| Mar 11, 2019 | BA | Second 737 MAX crash in five months Crash occurred Sunday Mar 10; this is the first session after. | -5.33% | -10.31% | -11.36% | -6.78% |
Measured from historical closing prices. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones. Not financial advice.